Every forecast made before kick-off, scored against what happened. This is the only ongoing evidence: each market's one-off evaluation season has been spent.
| Market | Line | Settled | Hit rate | Beats baseline by | Lead time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards | 4.5 | 603 | 60.5% | +0.0159 | 71h |
| Corners | 9.5 | 603 | 53.7% | +0.0031 | 71h |
| Fouls | 24.5 | 603 | 65.0% | +0.0551 | 71h |
| Goals | 2.5 | 261 | 55.2% | +0.0141 | 39h |
| Shots on target | 8.5 | 261 | 60.5% | +0.0247 | 39h |
"Beats baseline by" is the reduction in log loss against always predicting the observed rate. Positive is good; a hit rate alone can flatter a one-sided market.